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Boardwalk :: Forum List The Phoenix Quarter Infrastructure

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 Next > End >> Buster Cat   Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/16 20:59 If you accept that the Phoenix proposals will increase the population of Lewes by 10% and unless the new development attracts only the childless, consider the following: The East Sussex Education department's research shows that in 2010 the number of places required in Lewes schools will have fallen from 1479 places to 1422! There are 1416 children in Lewes primary schools today. The difference from the 1479 figure is because currently in the town's primary schools there are 109 places available in 4 of the schools. Although to partly offset this, 2 other primary schools (Southover and Wallands) between them are 46 pupils over capacity. Therefore this gives a net under capacity of 63. If you increase the population of the town by 10% (and this doesn't include the many other smaller scale developments apart from the Phoenix), then this could add 142 children of primary school age (10% of 1416). If all primary schools were to be at exactly maximum capacity in 2010 (1479 i.e. with no extra spaces made available by then and none of the temporary classrooms stripped away)then with a 10% increase (1416+10% = 1558)there would still be a shortfall of 1558-1479 = 79 places. If the Phoenix proposals go ahead, then presumably there would be a section 106 agreement which requires the developers to contribute towards the cost of this. However, there would still either be bigger class sizes all round (where do you deploy the extra teachers?) or there would have to be more classroom building. Which Lewes primary schools could absorb new building, I wonder? Presumably not Southover or Wallands!   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum. Chris   Re:Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/17 15:02 Actually, it doesn't sound much of a problem to me, because apart from anything else, it's not very likely that a Phoenix-Quarter-triggered increase in population would result in the same increase in primary school place requirements. Most of the Phoenix Quarter accommodation is proposed to be 1 and 2 bedroom flats, so you'd have to know something about the the typical distribution of numbers of children across types of accommodation before you could just apply the same 10% figure i.e. you're not going to get many primary-school-age children in the 1 bedroom flats are you?   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum. C M Darcy   Re:Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/17 15:38 This may be the case when they first move in but short of insisting on compulsory sterilisation, young couples in small flats are perfectly likely to have children. The Phoenix may well be seen as a transit camp for people moving into the town before moving on to larger houses to have a family. This will not simply exacerbate the pressure on school places but also on the provision of larger houses. A 10% increase in the population can only be seen as affecting the accepted demographic.   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum. Chris   Re:Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/17 16:26 I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "A 10% increase in the population can only be seen as affecting the accepted demographic.", but there will be figures available somewhere regarding the distribution of family size in relation to accommodation size. You could describe anywhere as a "transit camp" if you wanted to - the fact is that people often do move, for all sorts of reasons, including when they have a family and their children get bigger. This has nothing to do with extreme, emotive topics like sterilisation, it's to do with statistics. If you've got a spread of accommodation size, with a bit of research, you could find out the likely spread of family size, and thus the demand for school places. It's the sort of thing planners do all the time. What's wrong with applying a bit of science?   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum. C M Darcy   Re:Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/17 16:30 I think you'll find that's exactly what Buster Cats's posting is all about.   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum. Chris   Re:Over loaded schools in prospect - 2006/07/17 16:43 No, but that posting may well be bad science i.e. it shows calculations based on a 10% increase in demand for primary school places. My point is that it's not as simple as that, because the increase in demand for primary school places triggered by the Phoenix Quarter is not very likely to be the same as the overall population increase, due to the size and style of the proposed accommodation. That's all.   | | You must login if you wish to contribute to this forum.

Boardwalk :: Forum List The Phoenix Quarter Infrastructure

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